Memory keeping semi growth going
- Author:Ella Cai
- Release on:2017-06-05
The rise in memory prices is underpinning the growth in the semiconductor market, reports Bill Jewell’s Semiconductor Intelligence.
Q1, normally a down quarter, was only down 0.4% on Q4 2016 – compared to an average 4% Q1 decline 2013-6.
Compared to Q1 2016, Q1 2017 was up 18.1%.
‘The relative strength in 1Q 2017 was driven by a strong memory market,’ says SI, ‘the three largest memory companies – Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron Technology – grew their revenues a combined 10% in 1Q 2017 versus 4Q 2016. Excluding these three companies the semiconductor market declined 3.7%, in line with recent seasonal trends.’
‘Memory will help drive solid 2Q 2017 growth over 1Q 2017. Micron Technology expects 16% growth in its fiscal quarter ending this month versus the prior quarter,’ says SI, ‘with the exception of Intel – which is expecting a 2.7% decline – the top non-memory semiconductor companies have guided for healthy 2Q 2017 revenue growth. Intel’s projected revenue decline and Samsung’s strong memory growth is expected to result in Samsung passing Intel as the world’s largest semiconductor company in 2Q 2017 according to IC Insights.’
‘The outlook for full year 2017 semiconductor market growth has improved following the robust start to the year,’ says SI, ‘recent forecasts range from 11% from IC Insights to 16% from us at Semiconductor Intelligence. These forecasts are about 5 to 6 percentage points higher than the forecasts made by the same companies in the January to February time frame. Forecasts for 2018 include 3.5% growth from Mike Cowan and our Semiconductor Intelligence’s 7.0% growth. Our outlook for 2018 is based on moderating memory demand and stable economic trends and electronic equipment markets.’
‘16% growth in the semiconductor market in 2017 does not seem like much of an upturn compared to prior peak growth years (32% in 2010, 28% in 2004 and 37% in 2000),’ concludes SI, ‘however, it will be the first double-digit growth in seven years and follows a flat 2015 (-0.2%) and weak 2016 (1.1%).’
Q1, normally a down quarter, was only down 0.4% on Q4 2016 – compared to an average 4% Q1 decline 2013-6.
Compared to Q1 2016, Q1 2017 was up 18.1%.
‘The relative strength in 1Q 2017 was driven by a strong memory market,’ says SI, ‘the three largest memory companies – Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron Technology – grew their revenues a combined 10% in 1Q 2017 versus 4Q 2016. Excluding these three companies the semiconductor market declined 3.7%, in line with recent seasonal trends.’
‘Memory will help drive solid 2Q 2017 growth over 1Q 2017. Micron Technology expects 16% growth in its fiscal quarter ending this month versus the prior quarter,’ says SI, ‘with the exception of Intel – which is expecting a 2.7% decline – the top non-memory semiconductor companies have guided for healthy 2Q 2017 revenue growth. Intel’s projected revenue decline and Samsung’s strong memory growth is expected to result in Samsung passing Intel as the world’s largest semiconductor company in 2Q 2017 according to IC Insights.’
‘The outlook for full year 2017 semiconductor market growth has improved following the robust start to the year,’ says SI, ‘recent forecasts range from 11% from IC Insights to 16% from us at Semiconductor Intelligence. These forecasts are about 5 to 6 percentage points higher than the forecasts made by the same companies in the January to February time frame. Forecasts for 2018 include 3.5% growth from Mike Cowan and our Semiconductor Intelligence’s 7.0% growth. Our outlook for 2018 is based on moderating memory demand and stable economic trends and electronic equipment markets.’
‘16% growth in the semiconductor market in 2017 does not seem like much of an upturn compared to prior peak growth years (32% in 2010, 28% in 2004 and 37% in 2000),’ concludes SI, ‘however, it will be the first double-digit growth in seven years and follows a flat 2015 (-0.2%) and weak 2016 (1.1%).’
